Impact of Climate Change on Select Value Chains in Mozambique

Center (ownership): 
Tool typology: 
Assessing the business environment
Long name: 

Impact of Climate Change on Select Value Chains in Mozambique


In Mozambique, where agriculture accounts for more than 25 percent of gross domestic product and employs about 80 percent of the country’s workforce, climate change has potential to reduce production of key crops and jeopardize both macroeconomic stability and the livelihoods of millions of people.

Despite this, the country, with just 16 percent of arable land under cultivation, has great potential to expand the agriculture sector. This report considers both sides of the challenge, detailing the likely impact of climate changes on three key crops (soy, pigeon pea and sesame) and analyzing opportunities to manage those risks across the value chain. Focused on the four central provinces, the report concludes with concrete recommendations for decision-makers. 

This report seeks to address that knowledge gap by identifying specific regional climate risks to three value chain crops in Mozambique: soy, pigeon pea and sesame. These crops were selected based on economic importance as well as their priority in USAID’s Feed the Future (FtF) Program’s Zone of Influence (ZOI). This area includes the provinces of Tete, Manica,Nampula and Zambezia.
Type of tool: 
Both quantitative and qualitative

Much of the ZOI’s agricultural production is already vulnerable to the vagaries of climate because crop production there is primarily rainfed, with cropping cycles defined by the onset of the rains. Farmers typically do not use improved farming practices or inputs, which leaves them less resilient to the impacts of a changing climate. Practices to improve land preparation, such as tractor-based tillage and crop rotation, as well as the use of improved, certified seed, have been promoted. Adoption rates, however, remain low. Without a major shift in the farming system, the situation for poor farmers is expected to worsen as the projections for climate change in Mozambique become reality. The following sections examine the climate sensitivities of key target crops (soy, pigeon pea, and sesame) and their value chains. The impacts of increased temperature and changes in rainfall, including droughts and flooding events, are examined for each crop’s value chain. Also included are analyses of the overall risks to each crop’s value chain due to the combination of climate impacts (temperature and rainfall). Last, the analysis considers 1) aspects of these value chains that are similarly affected by climate change, such as transportation, and 2) important information gaps.

Main variables (add a few variables which are important for data analaysis): 
First released on: 
Wednesday, March 8, 2017
Last version on: 
Wednesday, March 8, 2017
Conceptual framework: 
Target audience: 
Development practitioner